Explainer — Goma, M23, Rwanda & the Tragedy in DR Congo

Seeing the news coming out of Goma in DR Congo, I am reminded of “The Lumumba Plot” by Stuart A. Reid, a sad book about how DR Congo became what it is today — an injured animal, with vultures from everywhere jostling for its meat.

You may have seen South Africa and Rwanda trading words on Twitter, with both warning that further attacks on its troops would be considered a “declaration of war”.

South Africa. Rwanda. DR Congo. What’s the relationship?

Well, let me attempt an explainer in what is definitely one of the world’s most complicated and longest running conflicts.

You see, the fall of Goma to the M23 rebels is only the latest chapter in a long and tragic history of conflict in eastern Congo. But to truly understand what’s happening today, we must go back in time — to colonialism, Cold War interventions, the Rwandan genocide, and the fight for control over some of the world’s most valuable resources.

What just happened in DR Congo?
Fighters from the M23 rebel group have captured Goma, a major city of over a million people in eastern Congo. The city is a strategic hub sitting on the border with Rwanda, close to rich deposits of minerals like gold, tin, and coltan, which are used in everything from smartphones to electric cars.

The Congolese government, backed by UN peacekeepers and troops from South Africa, Malawi, and Tanzania, has been fighting to stop the rebels, but so far, M23 has continued advancing. Thousands of people have fled, hospitals are overwhelmed, and there are reports of rising food shortages.

Hol’up. Who are these M23 guys, and what do they want?
M23 is a group led by ethnic Tutsis who claim they took up arms to protect their people in eastern Congo. Their name comes from a peace deal signed on March 23, 2009, between the Congolese government and a previous rebel group called the CNDP.

Initially, the CNDP rebels were integrated into the Congolese army. But in 2012, many of them defected, accusing the government of breaking its promises. They formed M23 and launched a violent campaign, seizing Goma later that year.

M23 was defeated in 2013 after heavy fighting with the Congolese army and a special UN military force. Many of its fighters fled to Rwanda and Uganda. However, the group resurfaced in 2021, saying the government had failed to address their grievances.

What’s the deal with Rwanda in all these? Are they supporting M23 and why?
Yes, according to the United Nations, the Congolese government, the U.S., and France. UN reports say that Rwanda has provided weapons, logistics, and even troops to support M23. Last year, a UN investigation found that up to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers were fighting alongside M23 in Congo.

Rwanda, led by President Paul Kagame, denies these accusations, as usual, but history suggests otherwise. Rwanda has repeatedly intervened in eastern Congo, often citing security concerns. After the 1994 Rwandan genocide, many Hutu extremists fled to Congo, forming armed groups like the FDLR, which Rwanda sees as a threat. In case you don’t know, the Hutu extremists massacred over 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus in just 100 days during that genocide; the fastest ever recorded k!lling in recorded history.

Kagame’s government (Kagame is Tutsi) argues that unless these groups are eliminated, Rwanda cannot be safe. However, many believe that even though his concern is one of the reasons, Rwanda is more interested in exploiting Congo’s mineral wealth than in security.

Mineral Wealth? I see. Is this why Congo keeps experiencing war?
You can say that. It really all comes down to minerals, power struggles, and foreign interference. Eastern Congo is one of the richest regions in the world when it comes to gold, coltan, cobalt, and tin — minerals that power everything from iPhones to electric vehicles.

Over 100 armed groups operate in the region, most of them profiting from illegal mining. Over 100. Just think about it. The minerals are smuggled out of Congo through Rwanda and Uganda, where they are laundered into the global supply chain. A UN report last December revealed that M23 was smuggling 120 tonnes of coltan into Rwanda every four weeks.

In recent years, much of Congo’s mineral wealth has fallen under Chinese influence. Many of the cobalt mines once owned by U.S. companies were sold to Chinese firms, leading to more foreign competition for control.

Could you put dollar values on these smuggling operations and the countries profiting?
Of course. Let’s start with Gold — the biggest revenue generator. The UN estimates that at least $700 million worth of gold is smuggled out of eastern Congo every year, mostly into Rwanda, Uganda, and the UAE before entering global markets.

Coltan — M23-controlled mines reportedly send 120 metric tonnes of coltan to Rwanda every four weeks, according to a 2023 UN report. With coltan prices averaging $40-$60 per kilogram, this could be worth $200-$300 million per year.

Cobalt & Copper — The DRC produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, critical for EV batteries. While most production is legal, smuggling networks — often facilitated by armed groups — channel hundreds of millions of dollars into illicit trade.

Tin & Tantalum — Estimated at $100-$150 million annually in smuggled value.

Diamonds & Other Minerals — An additional $50-$100 million is believed to leave through unregulated trade.

Total Estimate:
The UN and industry analysts estimate that between $1 billion and $2 billion worth of minerals are smuggled out of the DRC each year, depriving the country of revenue while fueling regional instability. Rwanda, in particular, has seen a suspiciously large increase in mineral exports — exporting far more than it legally produces, indicating cross-border smuggling from the DRC.

What about the UN peacekeepers? Aren’t they supposed to stop the violence and keep M23 from smuggling these precious minerals?
The UN has had a peacekeeping mission in Congo since 1999, currently called MONUSCO. It has over 10,000 troops, but only a small part of the force is authorized to fight rebel groups.

MONUSCO has been widely criticized for its failure to stop violence in the region. Many Congolese believe the mission is ineffective, and protests have erupted in recent years calling for the UN to leave.

Meanwhile, regional troops from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi have been sent in under the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission, but they have also struggled to halt M23’s advance. In the past few weeks, 13 South African soldiers have been killed in clashes, prompting tensions between South Africa and Rwanda.

Oh, this is where South Africa comes in?
Yeah, South Africa is part of the regional coalition helping Congo fight M23. After losing soldiers in recent battles, President Cyril Ramaphosa warned that further attacks on South African troops would be considered an act of war.

Paul Kagame hit back, saying that South Africa’s soldiers were involved in “offensive combat operations” and that Rwanda was being unfairly blamed.

This is not the first time Rwanda and South Africa have clashed. In 2014, South Africa expelled several Rwandan diplomats after Rwandan dissidents were assassinated in Johannesburg, allegedly by Kagame’s agents.

Why does the world care about this conflict?
Beyond the humanitarian crisis, global supply chains depend on Congo’s minerals. The war is not just about local disputes — it affects companies like Apple, Tesla, and Samsung, which rely on Congo’s coltan and cobalt for their products.

There is also a geopolitical dimension. The U.S. and China are both interested in securing access to Congo’s resources. While China has gained influence through mining deals, the West is now re-evaluating its position in Africa to counter Chinese dominance. So, you see, DR Congo has been the pawn in the game of these world powers.

Some analysts believe Rwanda, which has good relations with the U.S. and UK, is being used as a proxy to help control Congolese resources. This could explain why Kagame has avoided serious consequences despite repeated accusations of backing rebels. However, some have pointed to the US, UK and UN indicting and publicizing Rwanda’s involvement in the conflict as evidence that they do not support Rwanda. They also point to Kagame’s several public outbursts against western powers as proof that they are not on good terms. Dear readers, you can decide which is which.

Na wa. As it stands, what does this mean for the people of Congo?
For ordinary Congolese, the crisis is devastating. They have a very week government whose existence seem to be contributing to the conflict. Over 3 million people have been displaced in North Kivu province alone. Food shortages are worsening, and reports say people are fleeing on foot for miles to escape the fighting. There was this heartbreaking video of a soldier asking his colleagues to take care of his children. It just gets me torn to see people suffer in life through no fault of theirs. Talk about the cruelty of geography.

Hospitals in Goma are overwhelmed, and many areas have been cut off from basic supplies. Meanwhile, bodies lie in the streets as aid agencies struggle to operate in the war zone. With Trump freezing US aid, it will only get worse.

The reality is that Congo’s instability benefits those who exploit its resources. While the world debates diplomatic solutions, millions of Congolese continue to suffer in a war that has never truly ended since the country’s independence.

Is there any hope for peace?
Peace efforts have been tried before, but they often fail because too many groups profit from the war. The Congolese government, rebel groups, foreign powers, and multinational companies all have competing interests.

One possible solution is stronger enforcement of international laws against conflict minerals. If companies were prevented from buying minerals linked to rebel groups, it could cut off funding for M23 and other militias.

Another approach would be a serious diplomatic push to hold Rwanda accountable. If world leaders imposed stronger economic sanctions on Rwanda for backing M23, it might force Kagame to stop his involvement.

But in a world where supply chains matter more than African lives, true peace in Congo remains a distant dream.